President Obama appears to be ready to reject all of the current proposals on what to do next in the Afghan War in favor of a new strategy. It’s hard to predict which way he might go next.
He will probably reject General McChrystal’s request, and others put forth by the Defense Department. McChrystal got himself into some trouble when he went off the reservation and launched a PR campaign aimed at pressuring the Administration into accepting his battle plan, but there are other factors in play that weren’t present when McChrystal presented his proposal. General McChrystal’s decision was regrettable and probably contributed to the current state of affairs in the White House Afghanistan strategy.
Another factor is that the current government of Afghanistan is highly dubious. A run-off election was cancelled when President Karzai’s opponent dropped out of the running as he was unconvinced that the fraud that took place in the first election wouldn’t be repeated in the run-off election. International monitors reported ballot boxes being stuffed and voter intimidation happening across the country, to the point that Karzai lost votes during the supervised recount and didn’t have enough to win outright, as was originally projected.
The Taliban has been gaining ground in several provinces, and they won’t be dislodged without a major ground offensive to retake those provinces. Sustained battles with the Taliban means there will be more American casualties, something that the war-weary American public may not accept, and something that Obama will take the blame for, as Commander-in-Chief.
He wants the Afghan government to shoulder more of the responsibility so that the war can be wound down, but I wonder if the current Administration will repeat the mistakes of the 1980’s and 1990’s, when the U.S. left Afghanistan to it’s own devices following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Taliban came to power with their al-Qaeda allies.
We cannot leave the Taliban intact, but our government needs to decide what it’s going to do, and soon. The last thing we need is for al-Qaeda to rebuild in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, because we’ll eventually be back over there dealing with them again. Given the national treasure that we’ve spent freeing Afghanistan—and I’m talking more about lives than money—would we have the national will to do so again, as well as the strength of arms?
The other question is one of anti-government factions (non-Taliban) that are currently fighting against the Afghan government and against NATO forces. Given the success of getting Iraqis to switch sides and fight alongside the American military, can something similar happen in Afghanistan?
Where is this Administration taking us?
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