North Korean Artillery Barrage of South Korea Raises New Questions About What’s Happening in North Korea

Yesterday morning’s artillery duel between the North Korean and South Korean militaries doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.   The talking heads on TV are speculating that the North Korean leadership perceives its world-stage image as weakening, and took advantage of South Korean military maneuvers to demonstrate its strength.

I’m not sure that’s it. 

I think it’s more likely that they perceive the United States leadership as weak, and that they (North Korea)  want more bargaining chips for the six-party nuclear talks. If that’s what they were trying to do, I think it’s had the opposite effect that they were looking for.  South Korea is looking for an excuse to knock out the North Korean base that opened fire on Yeonpyeong.

I also think that the talking heads are correct in saying that this move coincides with the transition of power from Kim Jung Il to his son.

The saber rattling sure hasn’t let up either.  South Korea has promised “enormous retaliation” if North Korea puts one toe out of line, and North Korea has promised “merciless strikes” on South Korea if its sea border is “violated” again.  The western sea border was set by the U.N. and has never been recognized by North Korea.

I think that there’s a good possibility that there will be some major sea battles in the days and weeks to come, regardless of what the North Korean leadership is doing.  I hope it doesn’t spill over onto the rest of the DMZ.  We don’t need three wars right now.