If Ukraine Attempts to Use Its Law Enforcement Forces to Restore Order in Crimea, Russians Will Invade: They Did the Same Thing in Georgia/South Osettia War

If we’ve learned anything from recent history, it’s that Russia will not tolerate threats to ethnic Russian populations in any neighboring countries.  They invaded Georgia  in 2008 to stop the Georgians from cracking down on South Ossetians who had declared independence from Georgia and were calling for annexation to Russia.   That’s why I think the Russian Army will attack Ukraine.

With Ukraine coming apart, and the ethnic Russians in the eastern part of the country taking paramilitary action, Russia began maneuvers with a 150,000 man army in the region, and sent its military aircraft to threaten Ukraine’s borders.  They’re also protecting Ukraine’s former president.
 
Now that the Olympics are over, there’s nothing to stop Russia from going after Ukraine, in whole or part, should the Ukraine attempt to use force to retake their government buildings in the Crimea and bring the ethnic Russians back into line.  That’s exactly what the Ukrainians must do, and what Russia is waiting for them TO do. 

This is not going to go well for the Ukraine.   How far the Russians would take a military confrontation is unclear, but they’d love to have the entire country under their control again, and not just the eastern Ukraine.   They’d also love to reclaim the rest of the Black Sea fleet, which was divided between Russia and Ukraine.

The Russians have everything to gain and the Ukrainians everything to lose.