Predictions for Iowa Caucus on Monday: Sanders Will Win Democratic Caucus, Trump Will Finish Second or Third

I have a feeling about Monday’s Iowa caucus.

I think the email issue will cripple Hillary Clinton on Monday, and Bernie Sanders will win on the Democratic side.  On the GOP side, I don’t think that Trump is going to do as well as the polls are suggesting.

Cruz will probably win, with Trump in second or third place.  Rubio may surge too.

Trump’s supporters have to turn out in force, and I’m not sure they’re going to.  Younger voters traditionaly don’t turn out to caucus.  That’s Trump’s Achilles Heel…his supporters MUST turn out in order for him to win.

I still don’t like the Iowa caucuses, but with the bombastic Trump in the mix, it will be a very interesting evening.

Flint Water Situation is Outrageous: Screw-Up After Screw-Up, and Now The State is Responsible for Lead Contamination of Thousands of People in Flint

After watching the news coverage from when the story of the water problems in Flint emerged, and Governor Snyder’s State of the State address, I’m in shock that something like this could happen on so huge a scale.

The federal and state investigations should reveal who knew what, and when. 

I’m not joining the call for Snyder to resign at this time.  But it is disgraceful that a water quality problem of this magnitude is taking place in this state, which has many quadrillions of safe water to draw drinking water from.

People in these “protection agencies” need to DO THEIR JOBS so that something like this can be stopped from happening again.  If someone had done the proper tests prior to Flint switching its water source, and started screaming “STOP!!” this could have been prevented.

Now there’s one heck of a mess to take care of, and one that will go on for years and cost billions (which Michigan doesn’t have), and to take care of any kids that develop permanent brain damage from lead contamination.   This is not a political issue to be bandied around.  Politicizing this situation won’t make it better, either.

Texas Governor Proposes Constititional Convention: This is a Very Bad Idea

I’m opposed to convening a Constitutional Convention for any reason whatsoever.

The governor of Texas has proposed it to add Constitutional Amendments in the following areas:

• Prohibit Congress from regulating activity that occurs in one state
• Require Congress to balance its budget.
• Prohibit administrative agencies from creating law
• Prohibit administrative agencies from pre-empting state law
• Allow a two-thirds majority of the states to override a Supreme Court decision
• Require a seven-justice super-majority vote for Supreme Court decisions that invalidate a democratically enacted law
• Restore balance of power between the federal and state governments by limiting the former to the powers expressly delegated to it in the Constitution
• Give state officials the power to sue in federal court when federal officials overstep their bounds
• Allow a two-thirds majority of the states to override a federal law regulation.

I like all of these ideas, but not when a Constitutional Convention is required to pass them. 

What’s to stop a runaway convention from enacting other changes that one interest group or another want?   Given the difficulty in convening a Constitutional Convention, these groups will realize it’s their one chance to change the law, they’ll come out of the woodwork with their own proposals that are best left in constitutional debate classes and not put into practice.

I prefer to have the Congress propose an amendment, debate it, pass it and then submit it to the states for ratification.  3/4 of the states need to ratify it.

This is a MUCH safer (though much slower) way to push through a Constitutional Amendment.   A convention could conceivably make an irreversible mess out of our Constitution.   That’s not worth the risk.

Militia Seizes Federal Wildlife Refuge Building: This Situation Goes Back to the 2014 Stand-Off Between the Bundy Family and the Federal Government Over Their Rustling of Bundy’s Cows

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I wrote about the Bundy situation in 2014 as it was unfolding then.  Here are the links:

Obama Administration is Provoking a Domestic Uprising With Their Stupid Cattle Round-Up: They Need to Stop Sending Police, K-9 Units and SWAT Teams to Handle Arguments With Farmers and Ranchers

Harry Reid Needs to Retire: He’s Acting Like Nevada’s Emperor over the Bundy Ranch Situation Instead of Acting Like the Senate Majority Leader and Dealing With More Pressing National Issues…Get With the Program, Reid, or Get Out of the Way!

Bundy’s Race Comments Are Major Screw-Up: Whatever Goodwill He Had Built Up Went Out the Window and He Won’t Get It Back

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A blind man could have seen this one coming.  And now Cliven Bundy’s family has jumped in with both feet and are part of the armed group that is holding a federal building in support of another landowner in Oregon who has a conflict going with the federal government.    

I am of the opinion that the miitias should go home.

All they’re going to do is push the government into taking further unconstitutional measures to eventually end gun ownership in the United States.   This is exactly what the current Administration wants, despite Obama’s denials and his ridiculing the NRA and others who are daring to speak out against President Obama’s presidential fiats.

The militia group, calling itself the Citizens for Constitutional Freedom, has vowed to stay put until its demands are met.   No police have shown up, and many pundits are predicting that the police and FBI will not move in unless lives are threatened. 

This is probably a good idea by the police.   A pitched battle with militia members who are just as heavily armed as a SWAT team is the very last thing that is needed.

Bundy and his group won in Nevada due to the federal government backing down, which is probably what lead to their invading Oregon in support of another landowner with his own legitimate arguments against federal government actions.  

On a side note, there were peaceful protests in nearby Burns, Oregon, to support the Hammond family.  Many of the locals turned out in support.  That’s how this entire thing should have gone down.  The Hammonds have also made it clear that they didn’t ask for the Bundys or the militias for help.  They turned themselves in after being resentenced for an arson charge (a controlled burn on their own land that spread into nearby federal land). 

This is a miscalculation by the militias, and one that will do more harm than good.   Even occupying the facility while unarmed would have been better than what they’re doing.

And what of Native claims, which predate the ranchers’ claims by thousands of years?  Bundy isn’t talking about that.  No, they’re opening a can of worms that may lead to an outcome that they won’t like.

Just…go home, militia.  Nothing good can come of this.

GOP Promises to Repeal Obamacare in 2016: Another Empty Promise in an Election Year That They Have No Hope (Or Apparent Intention) of Fulfilling

The GOP is promising that the first bill they will send to President Obama’s desk for his veto is the repeal of the (not) Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). 

They could have already done that in the multi-trillion dollar budget that they passed last month.  Instead, they left Obamacare completely intact, and left Planned Parenthood intact as well, in a bill that really mattered.

By their actions so far, the GOP seems to be sending the message that they’d rather keep their Boogeymen (Obamacare and Planned Parenthood) around so that they have wedge issues that they can readily go after for political points. 

They don’t have a prayer of succeeding in either goal unless they increase their control of both houses (very unlikely due to the do-nothing Congress and GOP) and pull off a miracle in November and put someone in the White House.

The sooner the GOP puts up and shuts up, the sooner people like me will start to believe what they’re saying and promising.   I have no faith in the current Congress to get anything done this year, while I have every expectation for President Obama to do exactly what he says he’s going to do, and rule by presidential proclamation, regardless of whether it’s constitutional or not.

Prove me wrong, GOP.   Get something done.