Sunday, January 11, 2009

Russians Turn Off Gas Lines Going Through Ukraine: It's Another Step Toward a Russian/Ukrainian Military Confrontation

The Russians are using energy as a weapon against Ukraine again in a move that will ultimately lead to a war between Russia and Ukraine.

What other conclusion can there be?

Russia found a reason to invade Georgia, which it doesn't like very much. The Russians don't like the Ukrainians very much either because of Ukraine's decision to nationalize a joint Russo/Ukrainian naval base on the Black Sea. Russia is itching to kick the Ukrainians out of the Crimean Peninsula and seize the entire Black Sea Fleet for itself. The two countries divided the Soviet Black Sea Fleet between themselves after the USSR collapsed in 1991.

Their agreement over joint use of the Sevastopol base expires in 2017, and Ukraine has signaled that the agreement will not be extended. This did not go over well in Moscow.

Nor has Ukraine's attempts to join NATO or the European Union. Ukraine has the second biggest military in Europe behind Russia, a situation that Russia doesn't like very much.

During the Russo/Georgian War last year, Russia deployed it's fleet from Sevastopol to blockade Georgia's ports, and Ukraine insisted that deployed Russian naval units needed it's permission to cross back over into Ukrainian waters, which Russia ignored.

Whether the gas gets turned back on or not, Russia's using energy to influence Ukraine is a cause of major concern. Russia wants Ukraine under it's control as a buffer between itself and NATO, which it also doesn't like. And Ukraine feels the same way about Russian interference in their internal and external affairs.

No good will come of this current crisis.

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