Obama Administration Cancels Missile Defense Program on 70th Anniversary of Soviet Invasion of Poland: Timing of Announcement SUCKED

Poland is reacting very badly to the cancellation of the U.S. missile shield that would have been partially based on Polish territory.

For whatever reason, the Obama Administration decided to announce the change in plans on a dark day in Polish history: the 70th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland, which lead to decades of eventual Soviet rule, once the Nazis were driven from Poland.

The Poles are still very sensitive to the symbolism of this day, and our government chose this day, out of 365 days available in the year, to leave the Poles feeling like we're abandoning them. Again.

Couldn't they have chosen a better day?

Pakistan Knuckles Under to Taliban: If Pakistan Continues Down This Road, They Should Turn Their Nuclear Weapons Program Over to International Control

Pakistan agreed to impose Islamic law on a section of their country that is under the control of the Taliban, in a very troubling move that is a portent of things to come.

It's widely agreed that Pakistan's government has marginal control of their country and are facing a resurgent Taliban threat. And Pakistan is also nuclear-armed. Pakistan must not allow the possibility of their nuclear weapons ending up under Taliban control.

I think they should consider asking the Americans or Russians or some international agency to come in and remove their nuclear weapons if there is even a remote possibility of the entire country falling to the Taliban. They CANNOT be trusted with nuclear weapons.

It's one thing for an elected government to control it's nuclear arms and technology, but if that government is overthrown by a terrorist force such as the Taliban, the threat couldn't be clearer. It's also clear that if the Taliban do take over Pakistan, we'll be at war with that country next.

I hope that various governments are coming up with a plan to deal with this frightening possibility of a Taliban take-over and will take multi-lateral action to seize Pakistan's nuclear arms and technology if it looks like the country will fall into Taliban hands.

What other choice is there?

Russians Turn Off Gas Lines Going Through Ukraine: It's Another Step Toward a Russian/Ukrainian Military Confrontation

The Russians are using energy as a weapon against Ukraine again in a move that will ultimately lead to a war between Russia and Ukraine.

What other conclusion can there be?

Russia found a reason to invade Georgia, which it doesn't like very much. The Russians don't like the Ukrainians very much either because of Ukraine's decision to nationalize a joint Russo/Ukrainian naval base on the Black Sea. Russia is itching to kick the Ukrainians out of the Crimean Peninsula and seize the entire Black Sea Fleet for itself. The two countries divided the Soviet Black Sea Fleet between themselves after the USSR collapsed in 1991.

Their agreement over joint use of the Sevastopol base expires in 2017, and Ukraine has signaled that the agreement will not be extended. This did not go over well in Moscow.

Nor has Ukraine's attempts to join NATO or the European Union. Ukraine has the second biggest military in Europe behind Russia, a situation that Russia doesn't like very much.

During the Russo/Georgian War last year, Russia deployed it's fleet from Sevastopol to blockade Georgia's ports, and Ukraine insisted that deployed Russian naval units needed it's permission to cross back over into Ukrainian waters, which Russia ignored.

Whether the gas gets turned back on or not, Russia's using energy to influence Ukraine is a cause of major concern. Russia wants Ukraine under it's control as a buffer between itself and NATO, which it also doesn't like. And Ukraine feels the same way about Russian interference in their internal and external affairs.

No good will come of this current crisis.

Russian Professor Predicts U.S. Will Collapse and Break Apart in 2010: Russian Media Loves His Predictions

A Russian professor has predicted a 45%-55% chance that the United States will collapse under the economic strain that it's under, a second American Civil War will break out and several new nations will emerge from the wreckage.

Yeah, right.

But his wild predictions have found an audience in the Russian media, which has been interviewing him like crazy. Despite his reputation as a KGB analyst, he couldn't predict the breakup of his own country in 1991, yet he's prognosticating an American collapse in 2009-2010. His anti-Americanism has found support in Russia and in the Kremlin, who blame Washington for everything.

His description of the six new American nations to emerge from the article: California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

Thhhhp!

My prediction: 2009 will come and go. So will 2010. America will emerge from it's economic woes sometime in 2010, with a new focus on paying off the sizable debt that is currently being accumulated.

This guy has read too much Harry Turtledove (an alternate history author). Too many of his ideas look like they've been plagiarized from Turtledove and other "what if" authors that I've read.

NASA Retirement of Space Shuttle Program May Not Happen: Political Trouble With Russia May Require Shuttle Fleet to Remain in Service

The way that the rhetoric has been flowing between Russia and the West, and Washington in particular, future joint space programs with the Russians may be in jeopardy, which may impact on NASA's retirement of the space shuttle fleet in 2010.

Hopefully this is a momentary glitch in U.S./Russian relations, but if some kind of "new" Cold War starts up again, and relations between the two countries go downhill on a long-term basis, it's difficult to see the Russian and American space agencies continuing to cooperate. It's amazing how much impact a small nation can have on the relations between two big ones.

NASA is currently set to retire the space shuttle in 2010, relying on the Russian Soyuz rockets to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) with supplies and personnel until the new Orion shuttle comes on-line in 2014 or 2015. But with today's crash of the Orion mock-up, it shows that NASA still has a ways to go. (Video here)

But what if the Russians decide not to allow Americans in their Soyuz capsules? NASA may have to extend the life of the shuttle program to keep America in space, which increases the risk every time the shuttle is put through a blast-off, and atmospheric re-entry. Those birds aren't getting any younger. And they haven't been able to fix the foam problem which doomed Columbia.

Hopefully the political problems being batted around between Washington and Moscow won't translate over to the scientific community as well. The international community has invested too much into the ISS and other programs for it to fall apart now.

Georgia and Russia Are Both to Blame for Their War: Both Sides Targeted Civilians

You know, as bad as Russia's behavior has been in the last two weeks with their use of disproportionate force against Georgia, Georgia is also to blame for the current state of affairs.

The Georgians attacked civilians in South Ossetia first, starting with their rocket bombardment of Tskhinvali, followed up by a ground offensive. They used a sledge hammer to kill a mosquito, which gave the Russians all the reason that they needed to wage a war of aggression and occupation against Georgia.

So while we're screaming at the Russians to get the hell out of Georgia, we should also be condemning Georgia for it's conduct before the Russian "intervention." If Russia is being accused of using disproportionate levels of force, the Georgians have also done the same thing in South Ossetia. They went into South Ossetia to stop separatist forces from shelling Georgians on both sides of the border; it should have stopped there, but they turned a minor border skirmish into a major international conflict.

I think the U.N. needs to conduct two investigations to determine if war crimes were committed: the first one is to determine if Russia's invasion and occupation of Georgia violated the rules of war, and the second one is to determine if the Georgians did the same thing in South Ossetia during their bombardment of Tskhinvali. Everything needs to be looked at.

Both Russia and Georgia are signees of the Geneva Conventions; both are bound to not to deliberately target civilians in a war, whether declared or undeclared. This is considered a grave breach of the Geneva Convention. Neither side went out of their way to insure that civilians weren't getting hurt. In fact, both sides targeted civilians, both inside and outside the zone of conflict.

And before NATO membership is offered to Georgia, they need to be reminded that they have a responsibility to safeguard civilians in the conflict zone.

Who's In Command of the Russian Army?

Who's in charge of the Russian Army? The President of Russia, or the Prime Minister?

According to the Russian Constitution of 1993, the President of Russia is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. By Russian federal law, the Prime Minister of Russia has the power to:

• determine the basic guidelines of the Government activity;
• present proposals to the President on the structure and functions of the central institutions of the executive branch (e.g. ministries and federal agencies);
• nominate the vice prime ministers, federal ministers and other officers and presents them to the President;
• represent the government as an institution in foreign relations and inside the country;
• head the sessions of the Government and its Presidium and has the right of decisive vote;
• sign the decrees and executive orders of the government;
• He also informs the President about the Government activities on a regular ongoing basis.
  

The Prime Minister does not have the power to command the Russian Army, except as acting President.

But when Vladimir Putin stepped down as President of Russia and accepted the post of Prime Minister, many analysts expected the new President to be a figurehead, while Putin was the power behind the throne. The former KGB man was expected to remain the most powerful political figure in Russia.

And when the Russians stormed into South Ossetia and another breakaway province, and then invaded Georgia proper, Russia's president was nowhere to be seen. Vladimir Putin was in Beijing for the Olympic Opening Ceremonies, then flew directly to the battlefield to take charge there.

Western military analysts were astonished that the Russians could summon an army out of nowhere and move it across the border IN FORCE within hours. They concluded that Putin had been planning this invasion for many years and had positioned Russian armor, aircraft and troops near the border so that they could move fast once the go order was given. Who finally gave that order?

Then there's the cease-fire. The President of Russia signed the EU-brokered cease-fire with Georgia, but the Russians are still moving south toward Tblisi and have been sighted digging in and fortifying their positions. It's unknown if Russia will exit from Georgian territory as they've agreed to and in what timeframe. The reason: Vladimir Putin. He's ignoring the piece of paper that his "leader" and the Georgian President both signed.

Russia controls 1/3 of Georgia right now and have effectively cut the country in half. It's a huge mess that's going to get a lot worse, especially if Russia attacks Ukraine next, or the Russians renege on their pledge to withdraw.

What will the West do to stop Russia? What can they do?

Russia's Eaten Georgia Alive; Ukraine Should be Worried Too

Russia is continuing to eat Georgia alive, and Ukraine may be on the menu as well.

The Russians have never liked sharing military facilities or navy assets with the Ukrainians, and now that they're continuing their invasion of Georgia, Ukraine may want to beef up it's military.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, their vaunted Black Sea Fleet split between Russia and Ukraine; both fleets were stationed at Sevastopol, which is now Ukrainian territory. Ukraine leased the base to Russia until 2017, but has indicated that the Russians will have to leave Sevastopol once the lease expires.

Tensions between the two fleets have always been there; the sailors from both fleets have gotten into huge fights on shore when in proximity to one another. And since the Russians deployed units of their fleet to blockade Georgia, the Ukrainians have said that they may not allow the Russian warships to return to Sevastopol.

When the Ukrainians began making noise about not renewing the lease in 2017, the Russians began building a new Navy base at Novorossiysk.

And with the announcement that Ukraine is requiring 72 hours notice for the Russian fleet and military personnel/equipment to enter and leave Ukrainian territory, tensions will be higher than ever; and since the Russian Army is already on the move, Ukraine has every right to be worried about what/who Russia's next target will be.

If Russia does attack Ukraine, it will be the largest army in Europe against the 2nd largest army, not the largest army against one of Europe's smallest armies.

When will the Russians stop?

Russia's Attack on Georgia: When Will They Stop?

The former Soviet state of Georgia has been making moves toward re-establishing peace since war broke out two days ago, but Russia seems to be ignoring them, continuing their large-scale offensive against the Georgian military and state. Georgia pulled their troops out of the South Ossetian capitol and offered a cease-fire, but Russia rejected it and unleashed it's air force, sending fighters and bombers over the border to attack targets all over Georgia, and not just in South Ossetia.

In addition, the Russians have employed the use of ballistic missiles with non-nuclear warheads. The United States hasn't used a ballistic missile in Iraq or Afghanistan; it was thought the use of those weapons would alarm the Russians. In addition, the sheer collatoral damage caused by the impact of a ballistic missile would be unpaletable.

The question I have is this: if Georgia pulls completely out of South Ossetia, will the Russians stop, or will their offensive continue against Georgia? Russia claims that they aren't out to get Georgia, but if they achieve their stated goals and absorb South Ossetia into Russia, but keep advancing their army through Georgia and continue the bombing far from the actual combat zone, when WILL they stop? After they've occupied all of Georgia?

And will Georgia begin attacking targets inside Russia itself? So far their military has been in action on their own territory, including inside South Ossetia (which isn't part of Russia unless Georgia and Russia agree that it is). And since the Russians have invaded, Georgia seems to be focused on defensive action, but if this thing doesn't stop soon, that may change and Russia will tear Georgia apart, limb from limb.

The possibility of a Georgian military victory against the Russians is remote (wouldn't it be something if Georgia was able to defeat the Russians?), and the longer it goes on, the worse off Georgia is going to be. Forget about the U.N. Security Council; Russia is facing down the other 14 members with their super-veto (that is also enjoyed by China, France, Great Britain and the United States).

Hopefully one of the peace delegations being sent to Russia and Georgia will get the two sides to compromise and to get the Russians to back off of their disproportionate military response.

China Wants Satellite Shoot-Down Data: They Should Share Their Data on Their Shoot-Down FIRST

China's hypocrisy matches the hypocrisy coming out of Washington these days.

They started this mess last year when they blasted one of their old weather satellites with a missile test, creating a debris field that is still in orbit and still dangerous to satellites and spacecraft that need to share the same orbit.

The U.S. knocked a malfunctioning spy satellite out of orbit yesterday in a very low orbit that will be cleared of debris within a couple of weeks as most of the pieces of our satellite will re-enter the atmosphere and be destroyed by the fiery re-entry.

Yet the Chinese are demanding to see our military's data on yesterday's U.S. anti-satellite operation, while at the same time refusing to share their data on their own test from last year. I think China ought to share what it has from it's own test FIRST before asking to see ours.

I might add that the Chinese operation was ill-conceived as their satellite was further out and the debris field now threatens spacecraft that have to either share or pass through the orbit that the debris now occupies. That was not very considerate of the Chinese to pull that kind of stunt. If one of our shuttles gets hit by debris from this Chinese satellite, they'll be the ones at fault if the shuttle is damaged and subsequently lost.

The U.S. operation, while I disagreed with it, was much more carefully considered. They waited until the satellite was within days of re-entering the atmosphere and Earth's gravity had captured it. The debris will re-enter the atmosphere and will be gone before the shuttle Endeavour takes off from Cape Canaveral within three weeks.

You see the difference in the level of expertise and professionalism between China and the U.S.?

My main point is that the U.S. criticized China's shoot-down, then did the same thing less than a year later. And both sides are criticizing the other for doing the same thing. Double-standards galore! Break out the wheelbarrows; the BS is starting to overflow its banks.

So when's Russia going to shoot down a bird? From the Russian point of view, they HAVE to now. And the U.S. and China have no credibility left to protest Russia's action if it chooses to show it's stuff. And it will.

Kosovo Declares Independence: Serbia and Russia Move to Block Recognition of Earth's Newest Nation

Kosovo has declared it's independence from Serbia and the Yugoslav Federation, and has set off a political crisis at the United Nations. Serbia and Russia are moving to block recognition of the planet's newest nation.

The European Union and the United States are set to recognize it immediately.

Hopefully a new war won't break out over this.

As much as I don't like it, I think it's better that Serbia and Kosovo go their own separate ways. Both have been the transgressors in past conflicts; the two governments don't like one another, and with the recent history, it was an uncomfortable relationship at best. And in this case, Christianity and Islam don't play well in the same sandbox. I think Russia and Serbia ought to get over it and move on.

I'm still not happy with NATO's bombing of civilian targets in Serbia the last time around. NATO admitted killing up to 1,500 non-combatant civilians during their 78-day air war against Serbia. Depleted uranium rounds were used by NATO, as were cluster bombs in close proximity to civilians in both Kosovo and in Serbia.

That made NATO a co-aggressor alongside Serbia.

And we criticized Israel for using U.S.-built cluster bombs in southern Lebanon for the same thing during their war with Hezbollah last year? Our hypocrisy knows NO bounds.

No one from NATO was made to answer for the collateral damage. And I still think members of the U.S. government who helped to make up the target lists (including bombing the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade) needed to be up on war crimes charges as well. But they got away with it.

And now Kosovo has declared independence; if Serbia decides to go in and end this independence bid by Kosovo, are NATO ground troops going to get involved? This could turn into a huge mess very quickly.

Russians Believe U.S. Shoot-Down of Dead Satellite is Test of Anti-Ballistic Missile System: They'll Kill a Bird Next

The Russian Federation has accused the U.S. of testing part of it's anti-ballistic missile capability with the planned shoot-down of a dead U.S. spy satellite. Since China tested an anti-satellite weapon a few months ago, and the U.S. is taking a bird down now, how long can it be before Russia decides to demonstrate the might of it's own weapons?

It's very likely that the Russians will destroy one of their own satellites to prove to the U.S. and China that it's in the ballgame too, and can destroy enemy surveillance and communications satellites at will. And this will in turn raise U.S./Russian tensions even further.

The Bush Administration may want to rethink this planned shoot-down. It's going to provoke the Russians; they're already agitated enough with the placement of U.S. anti-ballistic missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic to threaten to target Russian nuclear missiles on both nations. They've also threatened to target missiles on Ukraine if it joins NATO.

We have a space shuttle up there right now; why can't they re-task the Atlantis to retrieve the satellite and drag it to a higher orbit, or bring it back to Earth? That's what the damned thing is designed for, after all.

President Bush needs to settle down and stop pushing the Russians around. They've returned to a Cold War mentality; we need to as well, and try to avoid taking steps that will blow both countries to kingdom come.

Russian Greed is Fueling Race to Claim North Pole Oil: They're Having Trouble Getting Oil Produced in Oil Fields They Already Have, & They Need More?

Russia's claim to the North Pole is being fueled by greed. Nothing else.

They have trouble getting oil out of the ground in their current oil fields, and they need more? That's about as ludicrous as Iran needing nuclear power.

Russia should live up to it's treaty obligations and stop this nonsense. And so should every other power currently jockeying for positions at the top of the world.

Russian Rhetoric Over Proposed Missile Shield is Nothing But Paranoia: No Ten Missiles Ever Built Could Stop a Massive Russian Nuclear Attack

Russian President Vladimir Putin managed to turn the G-8 conference on it's head with his Cold War-style comments on the proposed U.S. missile shield that will have elements in Eastern Europe.

I think he's trying to restart the Cold War and is using the missile shield to do it. There will be elements of the shield in Poland and in the Czech Republic; Putin threatened to target the sites with Russian nuclear weapons.

This is Russian paranoia.

The proof is in the number of intercept missiles that will be based in Poland--a grand total of ten--and the fact that Russia has many times that number of missiles in the form of ICBMs, and technology that allows each ICBM to carry more than one nuclear warhead (anywhere from three to fourteen nuclear warheads).

Look at it this way: if the American system were targeted on Russia, it would destroy the first ten nuclear missiles that Russia launched, leaving the rest of the Russian ICBMs free to launch and to presumably destroy their targets anywhere in the world. And that's IF the American system worked perfectly, which it really hasn't yet.

This missile intercept system should be a non-issue to Russia, but Putin is using it to his advantage to stay in power.

If the Russians don't want this system to be deployed, perhaps they should reign in their pals North Korea and Iran, whose ability to make trouble is unparalleled in the modern age. Or offer to host the system on Russian soil.

In any case, Russia's stirring the pot for Putin's benefit, and no one else's.