August 22nd and the Middle East: Will Iran Attack Israel On or About This Day?

This is a strange one.

August 22, 2006, is referred to in the Islamic calendar as the "Night of the Shia'a and Miira'aj", when the Prophet Mohammed ascended to Heaven from the Asqa Mosque in Jerusalem, and that a great light was seen in the skies over Jerusalem as he visited Heaven and Hell before returning to Mecca.

It also happens to be the specific date that the Islamic government of Iran chose to reply to the Western incentive package to end it's nuclear weapons program. The West had originally wanted a response by June 29th, but the Iranians chose August 22nd. Why not September 1st, or July 20th or June 30th?

Frontpage Magazine is suggesting a "nuclear attack or a full-scale assault on Israel" due to the Iranian President's threats against Israel. One of the people it interviewed for the story, one Farid Ghadry of the Syrian Reform Party, said that "Ahmadinejad is planning an illumination of the night sky over Jerusalem to rival the one that greeted the Prophet of Islam on his journey."

It sounds like a stretch to me, but the Iranian President is clearly nuts, and with Israel's "not-victory" against Hezbollah, he may well try something this week. Iran just happened to kick off a major wargames exercise yesterday.

Israel will turn Iran into a parking lot if it does launch an all-out assault. I do not think that Israel will even bother using conventional forces to stop Iranian missile launches or airstrikes. They'll eliminate Iran as a threat through other means, regardless of the consequences.