Campaign Scare Tactics and Terrorism

The Republican and Democratic tickets continue to take election-year potshots at one another over the terrorist issue.

Cheney has aired views that terrorists would take Kerry’s winning the election in November as a green-light to launch devastating terrorist attacks on America, while Kerry-Edwards have suggested a Bush victory would mean more wars for America.

Now seems to be a good time to take a look at a few hot spots where our forces might be sent into action:

Iran. Some are predicting a low-intensity war with Iran that sees the fighting centered on nuclear hotspots in Iran. It’s been suggested that U.S. Special Forces would be used to destroy Iran’s nuclear-weapons making potential. The chances of this happening are pretty low right now as the Bush Administration has made it clear that they will pursue diplomatic solutions. I don’t think they want Iranian special forces stirring up trouble in Iraq.

Iraq. Insurgents have taken over large parts of Iraq and the government of Iraq may request additional troops to retake parts of the country. An overwhelming American sledgehammer force will be needed to destroy the opposition. The chance of this happening is close to 100% in my view.

North Korea. We won’t start a fight over there, but North Korea is crazy enough to try something stupid and then try to throw the blame on the U.S. With so many nations trying to get North Korea to come to their senses, the chance of unilateral action on the part of any one nation is slim to none. Kerry wants to talk directly to North Korea and cut the other nations out of the discussion, but I think the other regional governments who have to worry about North Korea firing Nodong missiles over their territory should be in on this.

Afghanistan. Until the Afghan army is strong enough to fight the Taliban, the coalition will continue to do the bulk of the fighting. If the Taliban or al-Qaeda reconstitutes enough, we may have to send more troops over there. I would say that there is a 60% chance of this happening.

Taiwan Strait. With the total makeover of the Chinese government under new leader Hu Jintao, China’s policy toward Taiwan is a big question mark. The previous government said that it would invade Taiwan if it declared independence from Chinese rule. There will probably be statements coming from the red Chinese press about where the new government stands on the issue. If China does invade, what will the U.S. do? If it decides to defend Taiwan, it will be a war that is largely fought by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Slim to no chance of U.S. intervention right now. I think Taiwan should be independent, but should we fight a naval and air war with China over it? Fighting China will not help us stop al-Qaeda.

Saudi Arabia. There are going to be lots of diplomatic and economic rows between the U.S. and the Saudi government. They are involved in the war on terror only because al-Qaeda has threatened the house of Saud. They like high oil prices. If al-Qaeda starts attacking Saudi oil terminals and pipelines, expect enthusiastic support from the Saudis. Jerks. I don't forsee U.S. troops protecting Saudi pipelines.

Philippine Islands. We are assisting the government there fight Marxist and Islamic terror groups by sending the Philippine government arms, advisors and money. I don’t see 50,000 American troops heading over there anytime soon.

Conclusion: There is no greater chance of wars on the scale of Iraq and Afghanistan, unless Osama bin-Laden is elected President of Iran or North Korea or Cuba. If Bush tried to push us into a full-scale war with Iran or Syria, without proving to the American people or Congress that the intelligence is rock-solid, he'll be impeached. I would say that under Bush, we would have to send more troops to support the battlefronts that we are already engaged in, not start new ones. Iran is a problem, but there may be a coalition with our friends the French and Germans over this issue. They should take the lead on this since they're making lots of noise over how unhappy they are with Iran.

Conclusion: There is no greater chance of terrorist strikes on the U.S. under Bush or Kerry. The chance is equally great.

My advice to both campaigns would be: stop trying to scare people. It’s good to make them aware of what might happen in the future under EITHER Bush or Kerry, but politicians scaring the American public isn’t a good idea. Election-year BS.