Has anyone noticed how inaccurate the National Hurricane Center is in predicting where a hurricane will hit?
When Charlie and Frances were on the way in, the NHC changed its prediction of where each one would hit. They were very wrong when Charlie hit further south than they thought, and many people who fled south to escape Charlie took the full brunt of Charlie’s fury.
Frances didn’t do what they thought either.
Now with Hurricane Ivan approaching, they’re doing it again, changing their predictions several times, with Ivan looking like it may hit Florida or the Gulf Coast.
One would think that they would be able to tell where a monster hurricane (the size of Texas) would be going, given the prevailing wind direction, water temperature, warm or cold fronts that collide with the storm, solar winds, barometric pressure, plus other variables that impact on the direction of a hurricane. Apparently it’s not that simple.
I’m not blaming the Hurricane Center, but it’s become glaringly obvious that much more research needs to be done. This morning they were predicting a hit on the Gulf Coast, but they apparently cannot establish that it will come ashore at Nowhere City, USA on Thursday morning. What are they going to do, evacuate everyone living near the Gulf of Mexico? What if it doesn’t go to the Florida panhandle? What if it hits Texas instead?
If we knew three days ahead of time exactly where it was going to hit, disaster relief agencies could marshal their resources ahead of time and be proactive, rather than reactive. People could also evacuate days ahead of time, instead of hours.
It costs money to board up your house and leave, driving hundreds of miles to escape a killer hurricane. Most lose wages when they leave, and most businesses lose money too.
The disruption to people’s lives should be minimized as much as possible and accurate hurricane forecasting would go a long ways toward achieving that.
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